With all the excited talk about the candidates and their interviews, lets get down to brass tacks – the World Bank Board is going to hold a straw poll today to check into where countries are. While a formal decision is expected to be taken and announced Monday this straw poll is important to see if the developing countries can coalesce around one candidate and make the Europeans think again about the gentleman’s agreement (read: sordid back room deal with the Americans). Who has the numbers?
It is all a bit complicated because the Bank is in the middle of their capital increase, which has not fully gone through all capitals yet. Meaning the voting rights at the board are neither the pre-2010 agreement levels, nor the final 2010 agreement levels. The Bank corporate secretary helpfully published a new table of voting rights by executive director yesterday.
Here’s the arithmetic as far as we know or can guess.
- US, Canada, Japan for Kim. Lets add Spain/Mexico in that column since the Mexicans declared their preference. And lets Add New Zealand/Australia/South Korea as well since the Korean president has backed Kim.
- Latin Americans for Ocampo – Brazil nominated him, the Argentinians wouldn’t dream of supporting one of the others at this point.
- Three African constituencies for Okonjo-Iweala given the African Union support.
Let’s break down the unknowns:
As you can see, if Ocampo or Okonjo-Iweala are to win countries within the EU will have to break ranks. What are the odds on that? Paddy Power is pretty sure it won’t happen giving Kim a chance of 88.9% of picking up those EU votes.
Lets get political about this and see who is where in the EU:
|Country holding the ED seat||Votes||Government political stripes||Economic position||Notes|
|Germany||4.83||Centre-right coalition||In the euro||Wants the US to put money in the IMF|
|France||4.32||Centre-right||In the euro||Needs to pay the US back for Lagarde at the IMF|
|UK||4.32||Centre-right coalition||Outside the euro||UK loves its “special relationship” with the US|
|Austria||4.64||Grand coaltiion||In the euro||Wants the US to put money in the IMF|
|Netherlands||4.28||Right-wing coalition||In the euro||Wants the US to put money in the IMF|
|Sweden||3.49||Centre-right coalition||Outside the euro||Nordic-Baltic group considers itself “progressive”|
|Italy||3.31||Unelected bureaucrats||In the euro||Technocrats like Ngozi?|